$AS Due Diligence — Amer Sports, Inc.
Buy · 7/10 — full report on Stockato.
- Price: $35.88
- P/E: 44.86
- Market cap: $20.9B
- Revenue (TTM): $7.0B
- Profit margin: 6%
VERDICT: BUY
SCORE: 7/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM — mixed options/insider signals offset by strong management execution and analyst support
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Amer Sports (AS) is a global sports equipment and apparel company (NYSE) owning Salomon, Wilson, Arc'teryx and Atomic. It operates in the consumer cyclical/leisure sector with $7.04B TTM revenue and accelerating growth from premium DTC and footwear brands.
KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $7.04B (+32% YoY), EBITDA $1.05B, operating margin 16.5%, gross margin 58%. Forward P/E 27.5x vs peers 15-22x. Analyst consensus: 24 buy/strong-buy, 0 hold/sell, $49.72 target (+39% upside). Short interest 2% of float, days-to-cover 2.36.
BULL CASE
- Q1 2026 revenue +23% (+26% CC) and FY growth accelerating to 28-30%, consistently beating raised guidance across 8 quarters.
- Management credibility 9/10 with Arc'teryx DTC and Salomon footwear driving mix shift to higher margins.
- Analyst target $49.72 implies 39% upside; 24 buy ratings and zero sells.
- Stock trading at 52w mid-point ($35.88) with support at $33 and MACD bullish.
BEAR CASE
- Insider selling $17.2M over 90 days (sentiment -15) despite routine nature of most sales.
- Mixed options flow (53% bullish premium) with large sold puts and bought puts dominating top trades.
- Valuation premium to peers (forward P/E 27.5x vs DECK/RL at 15-22x) leaves limited room for execution slips.
- Volume today extremely light vs 20-day average.
OPTIONS POSITIONING
MIXED_FLOW with 53% bullish premium = $1.91M calls vs $1.72M puts across 30 alerts, net +$186K directional. Top trades: $662k SOLD PUT $32.5 2026-07-17; $600k BOUGHT PUT $32.5 2026-09-18; $341k SOLD CALL $35 2026-06-18; $317k SOLD PUT $25 2027-01-15; $226k SOLD PUT $37.5 2027-01-15. IV skew neutral. Flow shows hedging bias that conflicts with improving fundamental momentum and analyst upgrades.
MANAGEMENT CREDIBILITY
High credibility score 9/10. Delivered 8 straight beats or raised guides with transparent commentary on timing and one-time items. No recurring excuses; focus remains on long-term brand building in Arc'teryx and Salomon.
KEY CATALYSTS
Q2 earnings (late July/early Aug), continued Arc'teryx/Salomon DTC momentum, potential analyst upgrades toward $50 target.
KEY RISKS
Further insider sales, margin pressure from SG&A investments, premium valuation compression if growth moderates below 20%.
BOTTOM LINE
AS offers attractive risk/reward at current levels given proven execution and analyst support, but options hedging and insider sales warrant caution on size. Prefer dips toward $33-34 support for new positions.
How AS trades
35% below its 52-week high; worst drawdown in the past year 37%.
Moved 6.2% on average (absolute) across the last 8 earnings reports.
Behind SPY by 24.5 pts over 3 months.
Trades as a market-like name: β 0.8 to QQQ, 3.1× SPY's volatility.
Realized volatility is 32% over 20 days, calmer than its 1-year 40%.
One-year beta: 1.52 to SPY, 0.82 to QQQ (data-vendor beta 2.03).
Correlation of daily returns: SPY 0.24 (60 days) / 0.49 (1 year); QQQ 0.1 (60 days) / 0.41 (1 year); IWM 0.2 (60 days) / 0.49 (1 year); XLY 0.41 (60 days) / 0.46 (1 year); 10y yield (daily change) -0.28 (60 days) / -0.29 (1 year).
Realized volatility: 32% (20 days), 38% (60 days), 40% (1 year).
Maximum drawdown over the past year -37%; -35% from the 52-week high.
AS options and volatility
25-delta puts trade 2.7 vol points above calls in the nearest monthly expiry.
ATM implied vol runs 57% at 1 day to 46% at 162 days (event kink at earnings).
Options price 1.41× the last 20 days' realized volatility — rich.
The first expiry after earnings (2026-11-20, 43 days out) prices ±13.6%, which also covers 43 days of ordinary movement; the average move on earnings day itself has been 6.2%.
Dealers are long gamma; call wall 27.5, put wall 25.0.
Options-implied expected moves: this week (2026-10-09): ±$0.65 (±2.4%); next monthly (2026-10-16): ±$1.46 (±5.4%); earnings expiry (2026-11-20): ±$3.68 (±13.56%).
Options data as of 2026-10-08 07:13 UTC.