$MYRG Due Diligence — MYR Group Inc
Hold · 5/10 · Bearish consensus — full report on Stockato.
- Price: $443.22
- P/E: 46.76
- Market cap: $6.6B
- Revenue (TTM): $3.8B
- Profit margin: 4%
VERDICT: HOLD
SCORE: 5/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM — bearish options + insider sales outweigh growth signals
COMPANY OVERVIEW
MYR Group Inc. provides electrical construction services focused on transmission & distribution (T&D) and commercial & industrial (C&I) projects across the US and Canada. Industrials/Engineering & Construction sector; TTM revenue $3.82B with secular tailwinds from grid modernization and data centers.
KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $3.82B (+20% YoY), EBITDA $261M, operating margin 6.4%, net margin 3.7%. Trailing PE 46.8 (forward 17.4), P/S 1.73, EV/EBITDA 24.5. ROE 22.7%. Analyst consensus: 4 buy / 3 hold, $455 target (+2.7% upside). Short interest 4.4% of shares, down 15% MoM.
BULL CASE
- Q1 EPS $2.99 beat $2.00 estimate; revenue $1.00B beat $931M; quarterly earnings growth +106% YoY.
- Grid infrastructure spend projected ~$600B annually through 2030; T&D backlog expanding on electrification/data-center demand.
- Management credibility 8/10: restored margins to mid-range targets after 2024 project issues, consistent guidance, no goalpost shifting.
- Recent $328M Valley Electric + Comet Electric acquisition adds scale in high-voltage work.
BEAR CASE
- Valuation stretched (trailing PE 46.8 vs peers FLR 22.9 / ACA 28.4); price 9% below 52-week high of $484.71.
- 18 routine insider sales totaling $10.5M in last 90 days (Director Lucky Donald C.I. sold 72% of position) immediately after acquisition announcement.
- Technicals in downtrend: MACD bearish, price below 20-day SMA, volume only 26% of average.
- Options flow heavily bearish (see below).
OPTIONS POSITIONING
BEARISH_FLOW with 69% bearish premium ($172.6K calls vs $385.1K puts across 9 alerts, net -$212.5K). IV skew neutral. Largest trades: $207k BOUGHT PUT $185 2026-07-17; $99k BOUGHT CALL $210 2026-01-16; $64k SOLD CALL $100 2025-01-17; $64k SOLD PUT $310 2026-10-16 SWEEP; $52k BOUGHT PUT $135 2025-03-21. Flow conflicts with fundamental growth picture and points to near-term hedge or directional bearishness.
X / SOCIAL CHATTER
Grid spend tailwinds cited as core driver: "@MMMTwealth: Annually, investment into the grid is expected to be ~$600B through to 2030. Best smart grid plays: ... $MYRG: Transmission and distribution lines." Insider sales flagged as local top signal: "@actions_usa: A cluster of four insiders has offloaded a combined $10,501,547... at ~$449.53 average." Traders note consolidation: "@DmitriTrades: $MYRG ... handling the volatility well and consolidating nicely."
MANAGEMENT CREDIBILITY
8/10 score. Management isolated 2024 clean-energy/C&I project losses, restored margins to 8–11% T&D / 6–9% C&I targets, and delivered record 2025–2026 results with transparent updates. Minor deduction for initial underestimation of 2024 issues; no repeated excuses or shifting goalposts.
SIGNAL CROSS-CHECK
Options flow, insider sales, and technical downtrend align bearish; earnings beats, backlog growth, and grid narrative remain bullish. Overall consensus tilts negative.
KEY CATALYSTS
Q2 earnings (late July), further T&D project awards, data-center contract flow, potential tuck-in M&A.
KEY RISKS
High valuation leaves little margin for project misses; continued insider selling; margin pressure if clean-energy work re-accelerates.
BOTTOM LINE
MYRG offers strong secular exposure but current price near highs plus $10.5M insider liquidation and bearish options flow warrant caution—wait for pullback below $420 or clearer technical reversal before adding.