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CAST Due Diligence — FreeCast, Inc. Class A Common Stock

Sam's full due-diligence report on CAST (FreeCast, Inc. Class A Common Stock) — verdict, conviction score, key metrics, how it trades, options and peers.

Sell2/10Price: $1.42Market cap: $23MRevenue (TTM): $565,170

$CAST Due Diligence — FreeCast, Inc. Class A Common Stock

Sell · 2/10 — full report on Stockato.

Price: $1.42
Market cap: $23M
Revenue (TTM): $565,170

VERDICT: SELL
SCORE: 2/10
CONFIDENCE: HIGH — fundamentals collapse vs. price action

COMPANY OVERVIEW
FreeCast, Inc. operates a streaming platform in the broadcasting sector. NASDAQ-listed microcap (market cap $23.2M) that completed its March 2026 IPO; revenue TTM only $565k with negative EBITDA of -$13.0M.

KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $565k; gross profit $362k; operating margin -47.6%; EPS -$0.33. Price/sales 41x, EV/revenue 53x. 1 analyst: Strong Buy, $6 target vs. current $1.42. Short interest 0.27% (days-to-cover 0.44). 40.3% insider ownership, 2.1% institutions.

BULL CASE
- Single analyst target $6.00 (4.2x upside).
- Today’s 120% surge on 152.9M shares (48x average volume) shows retail momentum.
- Low short interest (0.27%) reduces immediate squeeze risk but leaves room for continued volatility.
- 60%+ insider ownership could align with any future turnaround narrative.

BEAR CASE
- Revenue $565k and EBITDA -$13M imply unsustainable cash burn with no visible path to scale.
- Post-IPO 52-week range 0.50–33.00 shows classic dead-cat pattern; current price still near lows.
- One routine insider sale of $2.025M in last 90 days; zero informative buys.
- Zero material news or catalyst verification in SEC/EDGAR records over past week.

X / SOCIAL CHATTER
@ShortSideIO repeatedly flags classic low-float post-IPO volatility with minimal short interest (0.45–0.69%) and 60% insider ownership, producing “dead cat bounce” moves without catalysts. No buyside, sellside, or channel-check commentary surfaced in the last seven days.

KEY CATALYSTS
None identified; next earnings window unknown given June fiscal year-end and absence of scheduled releases.

KEY RISKS
Continued cash burn on <$600k revenue; potential dilution from 27.4M shares outstanding; post-IPO lock-up expiration overhang.

BOTTOM LINE
Today’s 120% volume-driven spike is a low-float retail event, not a fundamental re-rating. With $565k revenue and -$13M EBITDA, the risk/reward favors exiting into strength rather than chasing.

How CAST trades

88% below its 52-week high; worst drawdown in the past year 94%.

Moved 11.3% on average (absolute) across the last 3 earnings reports.

Behind SPY by 68.2 pts over 3 months.

Trades as a high-beta name: β 2.7 to QQQ.

One-year beta: 4.14 to SPY, 2.7 to QQQ (data-vendor beta 2.69).

Correlation of daily returns: SPY -0.06 (60 days) / 0.14 (1 year); QQQ -0.1 (60 days) / 0.15 (1 year); IWM -0.13 (60 days) / 0.13 (1 year); XLC -0.05 (60 days) / -0.07 (1 year); 10y yield (daily change) -0.07 (60 days) / -0.04 (1 year).

Realized volatility: 69% (20 days), 323% (60 days), None (1 year).

Maximum drawdown over the past year -94%; -88% from the 52-week high.