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CEG Due Diligence — Constellation Energy Corp

Sam's full due-diligence report on CEG (Constellation Energy Corp) — verdict, conviction score, key metrics, how it trades, options and peers.

Hold6/10Price: $265.33P/E: 23.78Market cap: $97.7BRevenue (TTM): $29.9BProfit margin: 13%

$CEG Due Diligence — Constellation Energy Corp

Hold · 6/10 — full report on Stockato.

Price: $265.33
P/E: 23.78
Market cap: $97.7B
Revenue (TTM): $29.9B
Profit margin: 13%

VERDICT: HOLD
SCORE: 6.5/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM — options flow conflicts with fundamentals and analyst consensus

COMPANY OVERVIEW
Constellation Energy (CEG) is the largest U.S. nuclear operator with 12 facilities (~22 GW capacity) and a growing clean-power platform serving data-center demand. It reported $29.87B TTM revenue and operates in the independent power producers segment.

KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $29.87B (+63.8% YoY), EBITDA $7.96B, operating margin 21.9%, EPS $11.51. Trailing PE 23.78, forward PE 22.27, EV/EBITDA 14.03. Analyst consensus: 20 buy/strong-buy, 3 hold, 0 sell; average target $352.86 (+33% upside). Short interest 3.0% of float, 2.87 days-to-cover.

BULL CASE
- Nuclear fleet at 94.7% capacity factor supplies ~10% of U.S. emissions-free power; 20-year Meta and Microsoft PPAs locked in.
- Quarterly revenue growth 63.8% YoY; EPS guidance $11-12 for FY26 with 20%+ base CAGR to 2029 via PTC and uprates.
- Management credibility 9/10: multiple guidance raises, Crane restart accelerated to 2027, Calpine acquisition closed.
- Analyst target $352.86 implies 33% upside; institutions own 83.4%.

BEAR CASE
- Stock -36% from $412.70 high; 52-week range position only 19.9%.
- Bearish options flow dominant today (72% puts).
- EV/EBITDA 14.03 vs peers DUK 10.66 and SO 12.34; PEG 3.74 signals stretched valuation.
- Low volume today (1.29M vs 3.67M avg) and neutral technicals leave room for further pullback.

OPTIONS POSITIONING
BEARISH_FLOW with 72% bearish premium ($2.79M puts vs $1.07M calls across 30 alerts, net -$1.73M). IV skew +2.97pp (puts richer). Largest trades: $359k BOUGHT PUT $290 2026-09-18; $310k SOLD CALL $255 2026-08-07; $268k BOUGHT PUT $270 2026-09-18; $225k BOUGHT CALL $280 2026-09-18; $211k SOLD CALL $280 2026-08-21. Flow conflicts with bullish fundamental setup and may reflect near-term hedging.

INSIDER ACTIVITY
No informative buys or sells in 90 days; only one uninformative trade filtered. Sentiment neutral.

X / SOCIAL CHATTER
@Florian_0707 flags structural AI demand and cites $157-146 entry zone for +500% to $750. @grok highlights 21-reactor fleet, 0.66 debt/equity, $5B buyback, and BBB+ rating. @Stockspy1 warns of technical reversal to $100 after run from $100 to $400.

MANAGEMENT CREDIBILITY
9/10 score. Delivered repeated guidance raises (Q2/Q3 2024), closed Calpine, accelerated Crane restart, and secured hyperscaler PPAs. Minor delay on deal timing was regulatory, not execution-related.

KEY CATALYSTS
Q2 earnings (Aug), potential hyperscaler PPA updates, Crane restart timeline.

KEY RISKS
Valuation compression if rate volatility returns; options-driven downside pressure near-term.

BOTTOM LINE
Strong AI-nuclear thesis and execution intact, but today’s bearish $2.8M put flow and 36% drawdown from highs warrant waiting for stabilization before adding. Hold for now.

How CEG trades

25% below its 52-week high; worst drawdown in the past year 41%.

Moved 4.7% on average (absolute) across the last 8 earnings reports.

Ahead of SPY by 18.2 pts over 3 months.

Trades as a market-like name: β 0.9 to QQQ, 3.7× SPY's volatility.

Realized volatility is 60% over 20 days, running hotter than its 1-year 48%.

One-year beta: 1.35 to SPY, 0.91 to QQQ (data-vendor beta 1.13).

Correlation of daily returns: SPY 0.3 (60 days) / 0.36 (1 year); QQQ 0.3 (60 days) / 0.38 (1 year); IWM 0.27 (60 days) / 0.36 (1 year); XLU 0.61 (60 days) / 0.54 (1 year); 10y yield (daily change) -0.25 (60 days) / -0.22 (1 year).

Realized volatility: 60% (20 days), 44% (60 days), 48% (1 year).

Maximum drawdown over the past year -41%; -25% from the 52-week high.

CEG options and volatility

25-delta puts trade 4.4 vol points below calls in the nearest monthly expiry.

ATM implied vol runs 77% at 1 day to 47% at 162 days (inverted).

Options price 0.86× the last 20 days' realized volatility.

The first expiry after earnings (2026-11-13, 36 days out) prices ±12.2%, which also covers 36 days of ordinary movement; the average move on earnings day itself has been 4.7%.

Dealers are long gamma; call wall 300.0, put wall 270.0.

Options-implied expected moves: this week (2026-10-09): ±$9.65 (±3.22%); next monthly (2026-10-16): ±$18.14 (±6.06%); earnings expiry (2026-11-13): ±$36.68 (±12.24%).

Options data as of 2026-10-08 07:14 UTC.