$CMCSA Due Diligence — Comcast Corp
Buy · 7/10 — full report on Stockato.
- Price: $23.64
- P/E: 4.7
- Market cap: $85.6B
- Revenue (TTM): $125.3B
- Profit margin: 15%
VERDICT: BUY
SCORE: 7/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM — based on signal agreement
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Comcast Corp is the largest U.S. cable and broadband provider plus owner of NBCUniversal (studios, theme parks, Peacock). It operates in the Communication Services / Telecom sector with TTM revenue of $125.3B and serves ~31M broadband subscribers across 40 states.
KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $125.3B, EBITDA $35.4B (28% margin), operating margin 13.2%, profit margin 15%, ROE 20.9%. Trailing PE 4.7, forward PE 7.1, P/S 0.68, EV/EBITDA 3.82. Dividend yield 5.39%. Analyst consensus: 7 buy/strong-buy, 16 hold, 3 sell; target $32.4 (+37% upside). Short interest 2.35% of shares, down 3.4% MoM.
BULL CASE
- Trades at 3.8x EV/EBITDA and 0.68x sales with $35.4B EBITDA; SOTP narrative values studios/theme parks alone >$50B and connectivity at ~3x unlevered EBITDA after $16B debt discount.
- 31M broadband subs dwarf Starlink’s ~10M users while market cap sits at only $85.6B.
- 5.39% dividend and $32.4 analyst target imply 37% upside; 7 buy ratings vs 3 sell.
- Management hit 3-4% ARPU guidance in 5 of last 6 quarters and maintains 7.5/10 credibility score.
BEAR CASE
- Stock in strong downtrend, -1.36% intraday at $23.65 (near 52-week low of $23.13), price below all key SMAs.
- Quarterly earnings growth -32.6% YoY despite +5.3% revenue growth.
- Mixed options flow (52% bullish premium) with puts richer (IV skew +6.4pp) signaling hedging demand.
- No material insider buying in last 90 days; technicals show volume 72% below average.
OPTIONS POSITIONING (Unusual Whales 24-hour premium flow)
MIXED_FLOW with 52% bullish premium = $1.47M calls vs $1.33M puts across 30 alerts, net +$140K directional. Top trades: $253k BOUGHT CALL $25.5 2026-06-18; $197k SOLD PUT $22.5 2026-07-17; $186k SOLD CALL $26 2026-07-24; $174k BOUGHT CALL $27.5 2026-09-18; $148k BOUGHT CALL $25 2026-06-18 SWEEP. IV skew +6.4pp shows puts richer than calls. Flow is mixed/hedge-shaped and conflicts with the deep-value SOTP bull case.
X / SOCIAL CHATTER (4-5 sentences max)
@TMTAnalystANON highlights SOTP upside: “Long 7 figures of $CMCSA under $25. Easy 50% E(R) from here. Studio/Theme Park business worth over $50 Billion… Sub $25/share = buying the connectivity business unlevered at ~3x EBITDA.” @aditya_quant notes cable scale advantage: “$CMCSA has ~31M broadband subscribers… Starlink has ~10M users globally.” @JohnTeufelNYC flags valuation gap: “Starlink is the one profitable part of SpaceX but the valuation is exponentially higher than the actual largest ISP provider in the country. Comcast market cap is $85 billion!”
MANAGEMENT CREDIBILITY (3-4 sentences when data is available)
Comcast scores 7.5/10 credibility. Management hit ARPU guidance in five of six recent quarters and clearly pre-communicated the 2025 pivot to subscriber stabilization and pricing simplification. Early broadband stabilization results remain mixed, but free-cash-flow and capital-return discipline have stayed intact.
KEY CATALYSTS
Next earnings (not yet dated), potential broadband subscriber stabilization updates, any NBCUniversal studio or theme-park asset monetization.
KEY RISKS
Continued broadband ARPU pressure, Starlink/5G substitution, execution risk on 2025 pricing pivot, macro slowdown in ad and theme-park revenue.
BOTTOM LINE
CMCSA at $23.65 offers one of the cheapest large-cap media/telecom setups with 37% analyst upside and credible SOTP support above $30; mixed options and technical downtrend warrant position sizing but the risk/reward favors buyers.
How CMCSA trades
33% below its 52-week high; worst drawdown in the past year 33%.
Moved 5.2% on average (absolute) across the last 8 earnings reports.
Behind SPY by 12.8 pts over 3 months.
Trades as a low-beta name: β -0.1 to QQQ, 2.5× SPY's volatility.
Realized volatility is 22% over 20 days, calmer than its 1-year 32%.
One-year beta: 0.15 to SPY, -0.13 to QQQ (data-vendor beta 0.67).
Correlation of daily returns: SPY 0.14 (60 days) / 0.06 (1 year); QQQ -0.08 (60 days) / -0.08 (1 year); IWM 0.15 (60 days) / 0.1 (1 year); XLC 0.62 (60 days) / 0.44 (1 year); 10y yield (daily change) -0.12 (60 days) / -0.1 (1 year).
Realized volatility: 22% (20 days), 34% (60 days), 32% (1 year).
Maximum drawdown over the past year -33%; -33% from the 52-week high.
CMCSA options and volatility
25-delta puts trade 1.1 vol points above calls in the nearest monthly expiry.
ATM implied vol runs 46% at 1 day to 38% at 190 days (event kink at earnings).
Options price 1.64× the last 20 days' realized volatility — rich.
The first expiry after earnings (2026-10-23, 15 days out) prices ±7.5%, which also covers 15 days of ordinary movement; the average move on earnings day itself has been 5.2%.
Dealers are short gamma; call wall 22.0, put wall 20.0.
Options-implied expected moves: this week (2026-10-09): ±$0.41 (±1.93%); next monthly (2026-10-16): ±$0.88 (±4.2%); earnings expiry (2026-10-23): ±$1.56 (±7.47%).
Options data as of 2026-10-08 07:14 UTC.