$MYRG Due Diligence — MYR Group Inc
Hold · 5/10 — full report on Stockato.
- Price: $443.22
- P/E: 46.76
- Market cap: $6.6B
- Revenue (TTM): $3.8B
- Profit margin: 4%
VERDICT: HOLD
SCORE: 5/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM — bearish options + insider sales outweigh growth signals
COMPANY OVERVIEW
MYR Group Inc. provides electrical construction services focused on transmission & distribution (T&D) and commercial & industrial (C&I) projects across the US and Canada. Industrials/Engineering & Construction sector; TTM revenue $3.82B with secular tailwinds from grid modernization and data centers.
KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $3.82B (+20% YoY), EBITDA $261M, operating margin 6.4%, net margin 3.7%. Trailing PE 46.8 (forward 17.4), P/S 1.73, EV/EBITDA 24.5. ROE 22.7%. Analyst consensus: 4 buy / 3 hold, $455 target (+2.7% upside). Short interest 4.4% of shares, down 15% MoM.
BULL CASE
- Q1 EPS $2.99 beat $2.00 estimate; revenue $1.00B beat $931M; quarterly earnings growth +106% YoY.
- Grid infrastructure spend projected ~$600B annually through 2030; T&D backlog expanding on electrification/data-center demand.
- Management credibility 8/10: restored margins to mid-range targets after 2024 project issues, consistent guidance, no goalpost shifting.
- Recent $328M Valley Electric + Comet Electric acquisition adds scale in high-voltage work.
BEAR CASE
- Valuation stretched (trailing PE 46.8 vs peers FLR 22.9 / ACA 28.4); price 9% below 52-week high of $484.71.
- 18 routine insider sales totaling $10.5M in last 90 days (Director Lucky Donald C.I. sold 72% of position) immediately after acquisition announcement.
- Technicals in downtrend: MACD bearish, price below 20-day SMA, volume only 26% of average.
- Options flow heavily bearish (see below).
OPTIONS POSITIONING
BEARISH_FLOW with 69% bearish premium ($172.6K calls vs $385.1K puts across 9 alerts, net -$212.5K). IV skew neutral. Largest trades: $207k BOUGHT PUT $185 2026-07-17; $99k BOUGHT CALL $210 2026-01-16; $64k SOLD CALL $100 2025-01-17; $64k SOLD PUT $310 2026-10-16 SWEEP; $52k BOUGHT PUT $135 2025-03-21. Flow conflicts with fundamental growth picture and points to near-term hedge or directional bearishness.
X / SOCIAL CHATTER
Grid spend tailwinds cited as core driver: "@MMMTwealth: Annually, investment into the grid is expected to be ~$600B through to 2030. Best smart grid plays: ... $MYRG: Transmission and distribution lines." Insider sales flagged as local top signal: "@actions_usa: A cluster of four insiders has offloaded a combined $10,501,547... at ~$449.53 average." Traders note consolidation: "@DmitriTrades: $MYRG ... handling the volatility well and consolidating nicely."
MANAGEMENT CREDIBILITY
8/10 score. Management isolated 2024 clean-energy/C&I project losses, restored margins to 8–11% T&D / 6–9% C&I targets, and delivered record 2025–2026 results with transparent updates. Minor deduction for initial underestimation of 2024 issues; no repeated excuses or shifting goalposts.
KEY CATALYSTS
Q2 earnings (late July), further T&D project awards, data-center contract flow, potential tuck-in M&A.
KEY RISKS
High valuation leaves little margin for project misses; continued insider selling; margin pressure if clean-energy work re-accelerates.
BOTTOM LINE
MYRG offers strong secular exposure but current price near highs plus $10.5M insider liquidation and bearish options flow warrant caution—wait for pullback below $420 or clearer technical reversal before adding.
How MYRG trades
38% below its 52-week high; worst drawdown in the past year 46%.
Moved 8.8% on average (absolute) across the last 8 earnings reports.
Behind SPY by 29.9 pts over 3 months.
Trades as a market-like name: β 1.3 to QQQ, 3.8× SPY's volatility.
Realized volatility is 44% over 20 days, in line with its 1-year 50%.
One-year beta: 1.82 to SPY, 1.28 to QQQ (data-vendor beta 1.32).
Correlation of daily returns: SPY 0.38 (60 days) / 0.47 (1 year); QQQ 0.53 (60 days) / 0.51 (1 year); IWM 0.29 (60 days) / 0.53 (1 year); XLI 0.53 (60 days) / 0.57 (1 year); 10y yield (daily change) -0.02 (60 days) / -0.13 (1 year).
Realized volatility: 44% (20 days), 44% (60 days), 50% (1 year).
Maximum drawdown over the past year -46%; -38% from the 52-week high.
MYRG options and volatility
25-delta puts trade 2.5 vol points above calls in the nearest monthly expiry.
ATM implied vol runs 56% at 8 days to 55% at 190 days (flat).
Options price 1.27× the last 20 days' realized volatility — rich.
The first expiry after earnings (2026-11-20, 43 days out) prices ±15.6%, which also covers 43 days of ordinary movement; the average move on earnings day itself has been 8.8%.
Dealers are long gamma; call wall 320.0, put wall 290.0.
Options-implied expected moves: next monthly (2026-10-16): ±$20.88 (±6.67%); earnings expiry (2026-11-20): ±$48.91 (±15.62%).
Options data as of 2026-10-08 07:15 UTC.