$VST Due Diligence — Vistra Corp.
Buy · 7/10 — full report on Stockato.
- Price: $140.30
- P/E: 26.03
- Market cap: $52.6B
- Revenue (TTM): $19.4B
- Profit margin: 12%
VERDICT: BUY
SCORE: 7/10
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM — mixed signals (strong analyst/fundamental support vs technical downtrend + regulatory overhang)
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Vistra Corp. is a leading independent power producer and retail electricity provider headquartered in Irving, Texas. It operates an integrated generation-plus-retail model with significant nuclear, gas, and battery assets, positioning it to capture AI-driven power demand growth. TTM revenue stands at $19.45B.
KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Revenue TTM $19.45B (+43.4% YoY), EBITDA $6.79B, operating margin 26.6%, ROE 42.9%. Forward P/E 16.72, PEG 0.44, P/S 2.70. Analyst consensus: 19 Buy/Strong Buy, 1 Sell; target $221.94 (+58% upside). Short interest 4.32% of float, down 18% MoM. 52-week range 132.66–219.82.
BULL CASE
- AI data-center demand intact; 20-year Meta nuclear PPAs >2,600 MW signed, expanding long-term contracted earnings.
- Management raised 2026 EBITDA floor to ≥$6.8B and introduced 2027 midpoint $7.4–7.8B; 8-quarter track record of beats/raises.
- Forward P/E 16.7x and PEG 0.44x after 31.9% drawdown from highs; analyst targets cluster $212–227.
- PJM capacity prices structurally supportive for nuclear/gas fleet; FERC order clarifies co-location rules without killing economics.
BEAR CASE
- FERC PJM order imposes capacity-auction collar near $325/MW-day (cleared at cap, -2.5% YoY), limiting scarcity upside despite data-center demand.
- Stock in strong downtrend; price at $140.3 sits below SMA20/50 and near Bollinger lower band with MACD bearish.
- Quarterly earnings growth -52.3% YoY; valuation premium (P/B 16.0x) vulnerable if growth slows.
- Mixed options flow and 2.05% intraday drop reflect regulatory uncertainty.
OPTIONS POSITIONING
MIXED_FLOW with 58% bullish premium ($554.3K calls vs $395.3K puts across 30 alerts, net +$159K bullish). IV skew neutral (-0.75pp). Largest trades: $113k BOUGHT CALL $165 2026-08-21 SWEEP; $96k BOUGHT CALL $160 2026-12-18; $73k BOUGHT CALL $155 2026-08-07 SWEEP; $63k SOLD PUT $115 2027-03-19; $54k SOLD CALL $124 2026-08-07 SWEEP. Flow is mildly bullish but lacks strong directional conviction, aligning with the mixed fundamental/regulatory picture.
INSIDER ACTIVITY
No informative buys or sells in 90 days. Eight routine 10b5-1/diversification sales totaling $9.25M — explicitly flagged as non-bearish by the data. Neutral signal.
X / SOCIAL CHATTER
FERC $325/MW-day PJM cap limits merchant nuclear upside despite real scarcity; @x_is_a_timesuck sold citing “capped upside, full downside.” Valuation attractive post-31.9% drawdown at 16.1x forward P/E and 0.4x PEG; @PlantInvesting highlighted intact AI demand. Sell-side reaffirming Buys with targets $212–227; @gulVasikova noted UBS/Morgan Stanley support and dividend declaration.
MANAGEMENT CREDIBILITY
9/10 score. Repeated guidance raises (2025 narrowed to $5.7–5.9B, 2026 floor ≥$6.8B) with no recurring excuses; capital returns and M&A (Energy Harbor) executed as promised. Minor vagueness on deal timing only.
KEY CATALYSTS
Next earnings (Aug 2026), FERC clarification on co-located load, 2026/27 PJM capacity auction results, Meta PPA ramp.
KEY RISKS
PJM capacity-price cap binding; power-price volatility; high beta (1.51) in risk-off regime.
BOTTOM LINE
VST offers compelling risk/reward at current levels for AI-power exposure, supported by strong guidance delivery and analyst targets, but regulatory collar and technical weakness warrant position sizing.
How VST trades
20% below its 52-week high; worst drawdown in the past year 36%.
Moved 4.0% on average (absolute) across the last 8 earnings reports.
Ahead of SPY by 3.3 pts over 3 months.
Trades as a market-like name: β 1.0 to QQQ, 3.8× SPY's volatility.
Realized volatility is 51% over 20 days, in line with its 1-year 50%.
One-year beta: 1.47 to SPY, 1.0 to QQQ (data-vendor beta 1.39).
Correlation of daily returns: SPY 0.22 (60 days) / 0.38 (1 year); QQQ 0.25 (60 days) / 0.4 (1 year); IWM 0.16 (60 days) / 0.4 (1 year); XLU 0.53 (60 days) / 0.51 (1 year); 10y yield (daily change) -0.12 (60 days) / -0.19 (1 year).
Realized volatility: 51% (20 days), 47% (60 days), 50% (1 year).
Maximum drawdown over the past year -36%; -20% from the 52-week high.
VST options and volatility
25-delta puts trade 3.5 vol points below calls in the nearest monthly expiry.
ATM implied vol runs 80% at 1 day to 49% at 190 days (inverted).
Options price 1.01× the last 20 days' realized volatility.
The first expiry after earnings (2026-11-06, 29 days out) prices ±12.1%, which also covers 29 days of ordinary movement; the average move on earnings day itself has been 4.0%.
Dealers are long gamma; call wall 170.0, put wall 160.0.
Options-implied expected moves: this week (2026-10-09): ±$5.63 (±3.38%); next monthly (2026-10-16): ±$10.09 (±6.05%); earnings expiry (2026-11-06): ±$20.24 (±12.14%).
Options data as of 2026-10-08 07:17 UTC.